Gva Holding Sa

About Us

About Us

GVA Holding Sa was founded in 2012 and is fully capitalized by strong institutional investors and senior financial services executives. We have the commitment and resources for over 120 Mio Euro to build our business despite challenging markets. Both our management team and our advisors hold significant equity stakes inGVA Holding S, so their long-term success is aligned with that of our company

We are an established corporate finance advisor based in Luxembourg and united European market, with a focus on merger and acquisition transactions involving medium-sized companies and the trading brokerage of inventory and real estate. We advise companies and their shareholders in situations where a modification of the ownership structure or a reorganisation of the capital structure is required. Besides focussing on the classical growth countries, we are the pioneer European advisor with cross-cultural teams specialized particularly in cross border transactions between Europe and other major financial centers.

You can’t predict the future, but you can certainly plan and work toward it. That’s why here at GVA Holding Sa, we think it’s important to help you create wealth – and protect it, too. A well-rounded investment plan should include investments for growth and/or income, plus insurance to safeguard you, your family, or even your business, from the unexpected.

Economy & References

As consultants and trader, we are concerned with the analysis, acquisition and sale, management and brokerage of real estate and financial investments. We see ourselves as your competent advisor for asset growth and protection. In uncertain times, investors and advisors rely on strong custodians. GVA Holding Sa has clearing relationships with major independent custody providers, including Fidelity Investments, Emirates, Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., Westinghouse, and JPMorgan Clearing Corp..

You can’t predict the future, but you can certainly plan and work toward it. That’s why here at GVA Holding Sa, we think it’s important to help you create wealth – and protect it, too. A well-rounded investment plan should include investments for growth and/or income, plus insurance to safeguard you, your family, or even your business, from the unexpected.

Philosophy

Our philosophy is built on the belief that not any one product or investment has the ability to lead someone to financial success. The secret is not in insurance or the stock market or a 101%. Success comes from being organized financially, being protected from things that could threaten stability, and effectively managing the cash that flows in and out of a person’s life on a monthly basis. GVA Holding’s Sa strategies challenge traditional financial thinking and block the delivery of unsafe financial products to our clients. We firmly believe that life happens whether you are ready for it or not. When you become a client of GVA Holding Sa, we will help you proactively plan for your future by bringing clarity to your overall financial picture.

You can’t predict the future, but you can certainly plan and work toward it. That’s why here at GVA Holding Sa, we think it’s important to help you create wealth – and protect it, too. A well-rounded investment plan should include investments for growth and/or income, plus insurance to safeguard you, your family, or even your business, from the unexpected.

INSIGHTS

Market Update

Market Update July 2022

Macro:

The US unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.6% in June from a month prior, close to its 50-year low of 3.5% in the first quarter of 2020. Average hourly earnings advanced 0.3% month-over-month and increased 5.1% from the same period a year earlier. The consumer price index gained 9.1% year-over-year in June, a record-high in over four decades, surpassing consensus for an 8.8% increase. Retail sales rose 1.0% in June over the previous month, higher than the consensus of a 0.8% gain and mainly due to rising inflation. Led by an increase in defense aircraft, durable goods orders in the United States surprisingly gained 1.9% in June month-over-month, above the consensus of a 0.5% fall, and higher than the 0.8% increase a month prior. Core capital goods orders rose by 0.5% in June, matching May’s reading.

Stocks:

Equity markets in the US and Europe are holding steady after the recent sharp correction, despite alarming news of soaring inflation, negative GDP growth, and continued market fears of a recession. US stocks had their best month in two years, aided by better-than-expected corporate earnings. The S&P 500 climbed 9.1% in July, cutting the year-to-date loss to 13.3%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 6.7% and fell 9.6% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite Index saw a 12.3% gain in July, recouping more than a third of the losses it suffered in the brutal first half of 2022.

 

Rates:                                                                        

The 10-year U.S. treasury yield decreased by 36.42bps during the month as the Federal Reserve hikes interest rates by 75bps, the fourth time interest rates have increased this year to fight inflation. The 75bps increase was in line with the market’s expectations and the Fed also signaled a possible third consecutive large increase at the next FOMC meeting at the end of September. The 2-year U.S. treasury yield closed at 2.88% and has exceeded the 10-year rate since July 5. The People’s Bank of China kept the five-year loan prime rate and the one-year loan prime rate unchanged at 4.45% and 3.70% respectively, in line with market expectations. China’s overnight repo rate fell below 1% in the month, in another sign that much of the liquidity the PBOC is providing is sitting in the banks. This underscores the difficulty Beijing faces with boosting growth, ample liquidity is failing to stimulate demand, which remains weak due to the nation’s Covid-Zero strategy and growing housing crisis. The European Central Bank increased interest rates by 50bps, exceeding market expectations of a 25bps increase.

 

Credit:

Global bonds are headed for the biggest monthly gain since November 2020 as the market’s focus switches to a fear of recession amid rapid Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes, as reported by Bloomberg. Markets are pricing in a peak US interest rate of 3.2 percent by the end of this year and 50 basis points of rate cuts in 2023. China’s bond market is becoming the locus for global capital outflows and there are signs the government is growing concerned about the US$30 billion exodus as it delays data and seeks to manage investor expectations. Foreign funds offloaded 55.9 billion yuan (US$8.3 billion) of the nation’s debt in June, a fifth month of net sales that swelled the total outflows this year to 200 billion yuan. Demand for Chinese bonds has waned in recent months as US 10-year yields surged above 3%, while similar-maturity yields in China remained stuck in a range of 2.7% to 2.85% due to the People’s Bank of China’s accommodative monetary policy.

 

FX:

The Dollar Index rose by 1.2% in the month and the greenback’s gains this year have been fueled by a combination of higher central bank interest rates, haven buying, and recession concerns. It has been nearly two decades since the US dollar was this strong and there are no alternatives challenging the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency. The Euro depreciated by 2.5% against the dollar as the European economy tips toward a recession. The Euro dip below the dollar for the first time in the month in more than two decades. The Yen appreciated by 1.8% against the dollar as traders betting against the Japanese currency reassessed the interest rate outlook. Japan’s currency has done a U-turn out of a slump that took it from around 115 to the dollar in mid-March to a 24-year low of 139 earlier this month. The war in Ukraine has accelerated Russia’s pivot east and sent local demand for China’s yuan surging, helping tame a four-month ruble rally that’s piled pressure on companies and the budget.

 

Commodities:

Brent crude and WTI oil prices decreased by 4.2% and 6.8% respectively during the month of July, falling for the second successive month as weakening demand expectations outpace fears of tightening supplies. Natural gas prices surged 52.2%, and at one point during the month to a 14-year high before correcting, as Russia reduced Nord Stream gas imports to Germany to approximately 20% of capacity due to turbine maintenance issues. The continued outage of Freeport, the second-largest U.S. export plant generating liquefied natural gas (LNG), till at least October also weighed on supply. U.S. gasoline prices fell by 8.5% during the month, reflecting weakness in oil prices, the main component of gasoline costs. Copper prices in Shanghai tumbled 7.1% as continued coronavirus lockdowns in China’s major cities and recession risk in Europe due to elevated energy prices undermined investors’ confidence. Wheat prices were corrected by 6.6% as the United States Spring season wheat harvest is forecasted to be a bumper crop in the forthcoming weeks. Bitcoin rallied 27.9% in July, reversing partially its decline in recent months, as the U.S. Federal Reserve indicated the pace of interest rate hikes will slow down eventually and the next FOMC meeting will be held only in the latter part of September.

Market Update 1H January 2022

Macro:

Hiring in the United States slowed sharply in December compared to November, although the jobless rate fell to a new pandemic-era low. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 199,000 compared to the Dow Jones expectation of 422,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.9% in December from 4.2% in November, a new pandemic-era low level and close to the 50-year low of 3.5% in February 2020. The U.S. CPI index increased by 7% YoY in December, the fastest rate in 40 years and the third month in a row that inflation topped 6%. The Federal Reserve has ceased referring to inflation as “transitory” and is planning to raise interest rates to combat the high inflation. The market has priced in three rate hikes in 2022, possibly starting as early as March.

China’s PPI grew 10.3% YoY in December down from 12.9% in November, as China’s efforts to expand supply and stabilize prices continue to take effect, while US monetary policy tightening impacts on international commodity prices. YoY CPI was 1.5% in December, down from 2.3% in November, thanks to lower prices for vegetables, meat, and non-food consumer goods caused by the pandemic. China’s exports maintained a robust growth rate in December from a high base and the trade surplus reached a record high of US$94.5 billion. We expect China’s exports to remain resilient as the Omicron variant may have less of an impact on global supply chains than the Delta variant.

 

Stocks:

The U.S. stock markets have experienced a significant selloff in expectation of tighter Fed policy in 2022. Many former Fed officials believe the Fed is behind the curve on inflation and will need to raise short-term rates more aggressively in the near term. The blue-chip S&P 500 index fell 2.2% in the first half of January. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite index dropped 4.8% and The Dow was down 1.2% in the first half of the month.

The A-share market has dropped for two weeks in a row, as investors’ concern about the speed of stabilization policy implementation and sluggish economic growth, expectations for US monetary policy tightening, and US stock market volatility also weighed on risk appetite. In the first half of January, the CSI 300 fell 4.3%, the SHCOMP declined 3.3% and the ChiNext Index plunged 6.1%. The market turnover remained high, with the daily average being above Rmb1 trillion. Northbound trading has registered net inflows for two consecutive weeks. In our view, we believe the market sentiment would improve with the gradual implementation of stabilization policies and favorable valuation. The impact of U.S. monetary policies and market volatility on the A-share market may be limited.

 

Rates:

The 10-year U.S. treasury yield increased by 27.4bps in the month as market participants begin to price rate hikes earlier and at a faster pace, with speculation about a 50-basis point moves in March creeping into discussions, according to Bloomberg. The market is expecting the Bank of England (BOE) to raise the base interest rate as soon as February from 0.25% to 0.5%. The People’s Bank of China cut the rate on its one-year policy loans by 10 basis points to 2.85%, the first reduction since April 2020. It also cut the rate on the seven-day reverse repurchase rate by 10 basis point to 2.10% and net injected 200 billion yuan ($31.5 billion) of medium-term cash into the financial system.

 

Credit:

The Covid-19 recession had spurred the most credit-rating downgrades in the US since the 2008 financial crisis, but corporate balance sheets have improved markedly since then. The amount of investment-grade debt being evaluated for an upgrade has swelled to $203 billion, the most since 2010, as reported by Bank of America. China called on banks to boost real estate lending in the first quarter and eased a key debt restriction for developers, a sign that authorities are becoming increasingly concerned about the industry’s liquidity crisis. The offshore dollar bond market remains effectively shut for refinancing as the record pace of defaults and downgrades for Chinese borrowers have recently sent junk dollar bond yields to a record high.

 

FX:

The Dollar Index fell by 0.5% to a 2-month low as the dollar came under pressure after the Federal Reserve’s Chairman speech, which investors saw as too cautious. Further disappointment came from December’s CPI numbers coming at the forecasted level although inflation rose to the highest in nearly four decades. The Chinese onshore yuan rallied to a three-year high against the dollar as robust export growth and solid investor flows supported the currency.

 

Commodities:

Brent and WTI crude oil prices rose by 10.6% and 11.4% as consumption has held up despite the spread of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus and possible supply disruption after attacks in the Mideast Gulf added to an already tight supply outlook. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasted that oil prices will drop in 2022 and 2023 while OPEC has a different view and expects global oil markets to remain “well-supported” this year by robust demand. US natural gas prices rose by 14.7% as the market is predicting a cold snap over the next 2 weeks. US Gasoline prices rose by 8.7% as the Omicron variant appears to be milder, keeping gasoline consumption high.

Market Update 1H January 2021

President-elect Joe Biden proposed a 1.9 trillion stimulus package on 14th January, including $1,400 direct payment to individuals as well as a $400 weekly unemployment insurance payment till September. The latest data from both the US consumer sector and labor market are showing the weakness in the economic recovery. US retail sales in December declined 0.7% from a month earlier, marking the third consecutive month of declines and below expectations. Consumer sentiment slips on the backdrop of surging virus cases and deaths, as well as Trump’s impeachment after being accused of inciting insurrection. Non-farm payroll contracted 140,000 in December after growing for 7 straight months, well below expectation.

China’s headline CPI rose 0.2% in December from the same month last year, after posting negative growth for the first time in 11 years in November. The inflation was mainly led by food prices, which increased by 1.2%, as consumer demand increased ahead of the Chinese New Year. China’s exports increased 18.1% in December on a year-over-year basis, having been growing for 7 straight months and making China the only major economy worldwide that has achieved growth in goods trade in 2020.

Major stock indexes except for the Malaysia KL Composite index registered gains in the first half of January, with The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (+9.6%), Ho Chi Minh Stock Index(+8.2%), and Jakarta Composite Index(+7.5%) being the top gainers.

The U.S. stocks reached record highs in the first week of January on the hopes that new stimulus packages will revive growth and boost corporate earnings. While all three indexes registered the sharpest weekly drops since the end of October amid weak economic data and slower than expected vaccine rollout. Chinese mainland investors are showing unprecedented enthusiasm in the Hong Kong equity market, buying a net of $20 billion of Hong Kong shares in the first half of January, almost one-third of what they have been purchased in 2020.

U.S. Treasury yields rose in the first half of January as the US government bond selloff continued with the market fearing that the incoming Biden-led administration and a Democratic-controlled Congress could further ease fiscal policy. Excess liquidity has pushed China’s interbank borrowing cost to an all-time low with the 7D, 1M, and 3M rates dropping significantly in the first half of the month. From August to December 2020, the central bank injected a net amount of 1.6 trillion yuan into the financial system. The performance of other ten-year government bond yields was mixed.

Overall, the credit market remained relatively stable and market sentiments remain positive as vaccination across countries continues. Across the board, most major CDS indices rose in January as markets anticipate the upcoming US$1.9 trillion stimulus package by the new Biden administration. Major OAS indexes fell slightly while the LIBOR-OIS spread continue to remain stable.

The dollar index rose in January as the dollar strengthens against other international currencies supported by rising Treasury yields. The Chinese Yuan strengthened against the dollar with onshore and offshore currencies appreciating by 0.7% and 0.3% respectively. Chinese Yuan appreciated against the dollar for the past eight months and hit its strongest level since June 2018 due to the strong recovery of the Chinese economy and the slowdown in the US.

With the start of the vaccination across some countries and the gradual decline in US shale production and inventories, Brent and WTI crude oil prices continue to rise in January, increasing by 6.4% and 7.9% respectively as the market expects demand to be back quicker on hopes of a faster pace of economic recovery. In early January, OPEC and its allies extended their oil production cut through to mid-2021 coupled with Saudi Arabia’s agreement to remove 1 million barrels of oil per day from the market helped spur the rise in oil prices as well. US Gasoline prices rose by 8.4% on the back of optimism that oil demand will increase with the ongoing vaccination in place. Meanwhile, Bitcoin price hit its all-time high on 8th January at USD40,675 and almost quadrupled since the end of September 2020. One reason for the massive price rise is due to the huge purchases from large-scale institutions.

Market Update 2H December 2021

Macro:

Orders for durable goods in the United States increased faster than expected. Durable goods orders rose 2.5% in November compared to October, owing in part to a 34.1% increase in commercial aircraft orders. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for private investment in equipment excluding aircraft and military gear, dipped 0.1% after rising 0.9% in October, falling short of the consensus projection of 0.7% growth.

China’s manufacturing activity edges up in December ahead of economic headwinds. The official manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 in the month, which is expected to dip in January due to stricter-than-usual anti-pollution measures to ensure clear skies for the forthcoming Winter Olympics, as well as declining demand. The NBS non-manufacturing PMI increased faster than expected to 52.7 in December, even as China battles a COVID-19 epidemic in the key northern city of Xian. Industrial enterprise profit increased 9% YoY in November, down from 24.6% in October. The decline in prices, as well as the fading of contributions from fiscal subsidies and investment income, contributed to the slow industrial profit growth.

 

Stocks:

Major U.S. indexes ended one of their greatest years ever thanks to accommodating fiscal and monetary policy despite the ongoing Covid pandemic together with new variations outbreaks all year. In 2021, the S&P 500 gained 26.9%, the Dow rose 18.7% and Nasdaq was up 21.4%, respectively. Vietnam stocks were the top winners for 2021, with the benchmark VN-Index rising 35.7% in the year. The trading liquidity has been rising substantially as the stock market becomes an appealing investment option against the backdrop of low bank rates, tighter government control over corporate bonds, a lack of alternatives, and economic recovery in the new normal.

In the meanwhile, A-shares significantly diverged. The ChiNext index increased by 12% in 2021, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by only 4.8% and the CSI 300 Index decreased by 5.2%. The Central Economic Work Conference sent a positive policy tone and growth stabilization will be a new dominant theme in trading for the coming months. In our view, we believe the A-share market is better positioned to gain from different economic cycles and policies between China and other countries. Industrial and consumer upgrading will continue to boost stock market performance.

 

Rates:

From March 2020 to November 2021, the Fed bought over US$4 trillion worth of Treasuries and other securities. The U.S. central bank began tapering in November 2021, and decided to double the pace from $15 billion to $30 billion each month. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) lowered the loan prime rate (LPR) to 3.8% from 3.85% in November, despite the concern over high rising PPI. China was the only major economy to expand in 2020 despite the pandemic, but growth has slowed in 2021 owing to headwinds from a festering debt crisis in its property sector and localized Covid outbreaks. Libor, or the London Interbank Offered Rate, will no longer be used for new derivatives and loans as of 1st January 2022. The benchmark and reference rate, which had US$265 trillion linked to it globally at the start of 2021, is being scrapped in the biggest shake-up to markets since the introduction of the euro in 1999.

 

Credit:

Companies funding acquisitions will probably help keep U.S. high-grade bond issuance relatively strong in January, even as financial companies are cutting back on borrowing in 2022. China’s property developers have mounting bills to pay in January and shrinking options to raise necessary funds. China’s dollar bond market is expected to continue seeing defaults, especially in the stressed property sector. In the past year, starting from China Evergrande Group’s liquidity crunch in September defaults among developers have accelerated. Fantasia Holdings Group, China Properties Group, and Modern Land have joined China Fortune Land Development and Sichuan Language Development on the list.

 

FX:

The dollar is expected to remain propped up by the Fed’s intentions to hike rates as soon as the second half of 2022, the persevering elevated inflation, supportive Fed speak, and the solid performance of the US economy. The onshore Chinese Yuan posted its second straight year of gains in 2021 and gained 2.6% against the dollar to become the best-performing major emerging market currency, underpinned by robust exports, a growing trade surplus, steady capital inflows into Chinese assets, and ample dollar liquidity onshore. The Yuan’s rising global influence is yet another sign of China’s deepening connections across the world economy.

 

Commodities:

US oil ended the year at almost $76 a barrel, up 55.0% in its biggest rise since 2009 when the world was still recovering from the financial crisis. Europe’s Brent crude benchmark climbed 50.2% to $78, its best performance in 5 years. US natural gas prices fell by 21.1% as outputs continue to rise while gas prices in Europe drop as well due to the mild weather capping demand. US Gasoline prices rose by 15.4% as gas demands returned faster than refinery productions. Bitcoin fell by 18.9% as worries over the Omicron variant increases.

Market Update 2H December 2020

Latest data from personal income, personal spending, retail sales, and jobless claims added to growing signs of a slowdown in the recovery of the US economy. After months of difficult negotiations, US Congress finally passed a US$900bn stimulus package on 21st December, the second largest economic relief bill since the US$2 trillion stimulus package in March 2020. Eurozone saw a decent rebound in December as shown in manufacturing and service PMI indexes, supported by rising exports and a robust recovery from Germany despite the resurgence of the virus and tough lockdowns. UK and EU finally reached an agreement on Brexit on 24th December which took effect on 31st December 2020 after months of negotiation. The agreement includes zero tariffs or quotas on all goods between the UK and the EU, as well as provisions to support financial and legal services, transport, and a vast range of issues.

China’s economy remained robust despite slight drops in both manufacturing and service sector sentiments as shown in PMI indexes. Both indexes remain in the expansion zone for 10 straight months.

2020 was an unprecedented and dramatic year for the stock markets. The global stock market rebounded swiftly and strongly from March lows fueled by a massive stimulus package, unlimited liquidity injections, and an ultra-low interest rate environment carried out by global central banks, despite the worrying global economic outlook. The stock market ended a strong month with all major indexes edging higher in December. The S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones both rose to all-time highs supported by new spending bills and vaccine hopes against the backdrop of a severe economic slowdown. The Nasdaq increased 44% from the beginning of the year, S&P 500 and Dow Jones were 16.6% and 7.5% higher, respectively. Chinese stocks were among the top performers with ChiNext Index up 65.7%, Shenzhen Component Index 39.6% higher and China’s benchmark CSI 300 index up 27.7%, closing at a five-year high fueled by widespread coronavirus vaccine distribution and robust economic recovery.

U.S. Treasury yields remain relatively stable in the second half of December as US congress passed the long-awaited US$900bn second stimulus package of COVID-19 aid. Chinese government bond yields fell, and the 10-year yield dropped by 10.71bps, after hitting a one-year high of 3.36% the previous month. This is the first monthly drop after registering an 8th consecutive month of increase. In the final five weeks of 2020, the PBOC injected a net of US$84bn in one-year funding and US$8bn of short-term cash. The injections have helped calm money markets and arrest the longest selloff in government debt since 2007.

Across the board, major CDS indices and OAS indexes dropped in December as the global economy continues to recover. Overall, the sentiment in the credit market remained positive and credit spreads headed toward pre-COVID levels as vaccination across some countries began.

Most major international currencies appreciated against the dollar on the back of the start of vaccination across some countries. The dollar index hit an 8-month low on 30th December as international economies continue to recover. Chinese Yuan has been appreciating against the dollar for the 7th consecutive month and hit its strongest level since June 2018. The AUD strengthened by 4.9%, rising to its highest against the dollar in more than two years as iron ore prices continue to climb due to increased demand from China despite the government calls for sharp cuts in the country’s steel output and the dwindling supply and disruptions caused by storms hitting Australia.

With the start of vaccination across some countries and the recent second US stimulus package, Brent and WTI crude oil prices continue to rise in December, increasing by 7.4% and 5.7% respectively as the market expects demand to be back quicker in hopes of a faster pace of economic recovery. US natural gas prices fell by 12.4% as consumption is expected to decline year over year in 2020 according to the EIA. Silver price rose sharply by 16.5% while Bitcoin price surged by 45.7% as investors continue to bid prices up and have hit its all-time high. Bullish sentiments from investors are due to claims that the volatile cryptocurrency is on the way to becoming a mainstream payment method.

Market Update 1H September 2020

A wave of selling pressure rippled across the US and China stock markets as investors fled the overheated tech stocks which fueled a historic 5-month rally. The stronger-than-expected activity data in China and vaccine optimism supported investor sentiment, and stocks in both markets claw back strength after two weeks of selloffs. Stocks were on course for a cautious start this week as investors awaited the Federal Reserve policy meeting, on expectations that the Fed would stick with its supportive policy stance. 

Various country’s CDS indexes remained relatively stable in September, showing signs of increased confidence in the recovery of the bond market. China’s yuan surged to a 16-month high on economic data while the dollar dropped to a two-week low versus the yen on expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep its rate lower for longer.

Oil prices tumbled to their lowest since June earlier this month amid concerns over the future of oil demand before they recovered slightly in the second week of September. WTI crude is down 9.5% and Brent crude fell 9% this month, being the worst performers among commodities. All commodities surged this week on the back of positive data showing China’s economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis is gathering strength.